Demographics Is NOT Destiny

On September 10, 2019, a special election will be held in North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District to elect someone to replace former incumbent Rep. Walter Jones, who died earlier this year. North Carolina is a solidly Republican district, with long-time Congressman Jones earning twice as many votes as his Democratic challenger in nearly every election since he first took office in 1995.

But North Carolina’s District 3 is interesting for another reason, one that every Republican strategist in America should study. It is one of 47 congressional districts in the United States where, for the 2018 midterm elections, a majority of nonwhite voters were projected to vote Republican.

The following map, prepared by elections analyst Geoffrey Skelly at the research firm FiveThirtyEight, shows the congressional districts (red) where, if only nonwhite people voted, Republican candidates would still be likely to win.

It’s hard to overstate the significance of these 47 congressional districts. Because they belie the smug certainty on the part of Democratic politicians and strategists across the U.S. who equate demographic transformation of America with an inevitable and unbreakable Democratic majority. Take mass nonwhite immigration, higher birthrates for nonwhites, mix in identity politics and Leftist, race-centric indoctrination against “white privilege,” and voila, America becomes a one-party state. Or does it?

What distinguishes these 47 congressional districts? All but ten of them are in right-to-work states. The ones that are not are in CA 8, MO 3, 4, 7, and 8, IL 15, OH 6 […] Read More